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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #76 
Is Hanna going to cross into the Gulf and make the Gustav-Hanna Hurricanes a one two punch similar to Katrina-Rita?  Hope not but, it seems an increasingly likely possibility. 

Could Hanna cross over into the golf and do a right turn back toward Captiva...unlikely but if the high near the Carolina's-Atlantic dissipates it's possible?  

The picture below should automatically update and help you track Hanna.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #77 

Storm Track

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #78 

The track for Hanna has changed again, it is expected to again head for the SE coast of Florida, not Cuba.  the good news is that it still has sustained winds of only 50mph.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #79 
It looks like Hanna has[Table of probable wind speed intensity range] a lower probability of becoming aHurricane. Seebelow:
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #80 
Attached is an interesting report taken from Hans site detailing the effect Hurricane Fay had on Captiva beaches.


http://southseastimeshares.com/article.php?sid=287&mode=&order=0&thold=0
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #81 

Holy Smoke, Hanna is now expected to take a NNW track missing Florida altogether.  See updated chart above.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #82 

Aattached is a graph of the frequency of Atlantic storms for recent years.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #83 
Advisory, no swimming on Captiva until the surf effects of Gustav subside.

Sunday, August 31, 2008 — Time: 8:04:08 PM EST
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High surf advisory in effect; 2 p.m. Sunday; No swimming advised

A high surf advisory remains in effect through Tuesday as the effects of Hurricane Gustav are felt throughout the region. No swimming is advised.



The high surf advisory is expected to remain in effect until 8 a.m. Monday as Gustav moves northwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, northwest of the southwest Florida, today through Monday.



Southwesterly swells should begin to affect Gulf beaches. This will result in rough surf and an increase in rip currents today and tonight. In addition, high tides one to two feet above usual levels are possible along the Gulf Coast which could lead to some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. This will be enhanced near the time of high tides this afternoon and early Monday morning.



A rip current is a 10 to 30 yard wide channel of water that can pull even a strong swimmer from near of inside a sand bar into deeper water. Due to the life-threatening danger these currents can cause, swimming is not advised in Atlantic beaches today.



If caught in one of these currents, do not attempt to move directly to shore but move sideways across the current until the pull eases. An alternate method of escape is to allow the rip current to pull you seaward until the force weakens, then swim toward the beach at an angle away from the current.



Source: National Weather Service

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #84 
Current update of the Atlantic storms. Number is IKE.

TC Activity
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #85 
Hanna remains a moderate threat to Captiva as it is now a category I Hurricane and its current direction is antibody's guess.

See post 77 this page.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #86 
This is one of the best Hurricane tracking sites I have used.  Enjoy.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-hanna-2008
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #87 

How these forecasts work, I do not know but Hanna and Josephine do not appear a threat to Captiva.   Ike on the other hand is a real threat to Captiva based upon the latest cone of probability and estimated tracking forecast.  Stay tuned.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #88 

IKE is no longer a Tropical Storm it is now classified as a Tropical Hurricane with winds of 80mph... to achieve those wind speeds in the cooler waters of the Atlantic vs the Caribbean is a little scary given its cone of probability.

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suziq45

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Reply with quote  #89 
Love the stormpulse site. Best one I've seen. Stats on IKE are quite alarming.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #90 
IKE is now a Cat IV Hurricane with wind of 140mph and a clear and present danger to Captiva.  See attached Spaghetti Models.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008
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