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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #46 
Good news, possibly lower insurance costs because Captiva is declared "storm ready".


http://www.mycaptiva.info/Captiva_News.htm
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #47 

Two more tropical storms on the way.  1. about 100 miles east of the windward islands.  It is of the most concern as it is definitely going into the Caribbean and very likely the Gulf.  2.  This storm is still well out in the Atlantic and likely to move toward the Atlantic Coast. 

NHC/NHS  1.  A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE SHOULD
SPREAD SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

2.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #48 
Read the text on the left side of this page...could be very helpful in the future.  Note the blue area below the southern Caribbean islands, that is the potential problem area mentioned in the previous post. Fay is also quite visible and well formed in the Florida panhandle. 


http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #49 
As you can see from the attached radar picture the Caribbean storm has not yet formed a tropical depression but it appears to be trying. 


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #50 
In part, my concern about this storm is that it is starting out in the same spot as Charlie in August 2004.  The attached picture shows hurricane Charlie's track.  As you can see, Charlie did not become a Category IV storm until just before hitting the barrier islands.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Charley_2004_track.png
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #51 

Equally interesting, Charlie did not gain hurricane status until it got almost to Jamaica...a very long way from the "Windward's".  See the color coding of the dots on the track in the lower right hand corner of the Charlie track on the previous post.  In case you missed it.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #52 

Hang on, This one looks like it is going to form a Tropical Depression real soon if it hasn't already.  Below are comments from the NHC.  Also shown is the latest satellite image of the storm...not an encouraging picture!

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
SANTO DOMINGO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #53 
The above discussed Caribbean storm is now classified as a Tropical Depression.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #54 

The depression is now classified as a Tropical Storm and it's name is GUSTAV.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html
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CaptivaBound

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Reply with quote  #55 
From the MyCaptiva.info website:

Captiva to become first "Storm Ready" certified barrier island

By Maggie Crane

Captiva Island - It was hit hard by Hurricane Charley, but now, Captiva Island is on its way to becoming the nation's first barrier island designated as "storm ready."

A government meteorologist paid a visit to Captiva on Wednesday.

Not only would Captiva be the first barrier island to become "storm ready," but it would be the first city in Lee County to get the national seal of safety approval from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It says just because Captivans are storm ready, it doesn't mean they're storm proof.



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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #56 

Gustav has almost doubled it's wind speed in the last 2-3 hours from 35mph to now 60 mph.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #57 
Attached is the first spaghetti model for Gustav.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/Fay_models.html
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #58 

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #59 
The latest red and yellow spaghetti models of Gustav very closely overlap Charlie's track.

llow
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #60 

As you can see from the above graphics Gustav is now a Tropical Hurricane with sustained winds of 90 mph.  Not those graphics are updated periodically throughout the day and night.  The latest plot was 9:00AM Tue.

Gustav is running a little north of Charlies track but so far running roughly parallel to it.  Charlie's track is copied below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Charley_2004_track.png

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