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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #31 

A Weather Channel Dr. of climatology has just estimated that the South tip of Sanibel Island is the likely maximum Northern edge of the eye track.  I'll take that.

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DonFromSLC

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Reply with quote  #32 

With all due respect Captiivated, I take exception to your statement that it is  "a bit of a shock to find out how poor and unreliable the NWS forecasts have been.  Guess that is the nature of the beast.  I'm sure that as we get closer to landfall the forecasts will be much improved."  Well, I think it is an example of incredible science that they can make these type of predictions with as much accuracy as they do!  It gets better every year!  If you remember Charlie, it was headed to Tampa until it rapidly gained strength and turned right at the last minute to take dead aim on Red Fish Pass.  Rather than the "nature of the beast" better to think of this as the "beast of nature" for which we have little control or knowledge!  I truly hope for the best of luck to you and all in the Captiva/Ft. Myers area in the next 12 hours!

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #33 
No offence taken. All I can say is I was shocked.  You don't have to be.  The NWS must have a staff of 25 Doctorates each with three computers, 100 years of storm history, and with aid of several aircraft, knowledge of local conditions that can move the storm track all linked to a Cray super computer.  Maybe two.

I was amazed, no I'll stay shocked, that with all that "talent" they can move the eye land fall from Captiva to the Florida panhandle and back to Captiva in just six hours or so.  That's what, a 300 mile reversal in about six hours on a baby storm relative to Charlie.
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #34 
Last plot by Fox has the "spaghetti probability models" of eye land fall at 7 out of 8 to the south of Captiva.  See attached link.  More good news.

I happen to like that analysis as it demonstrates this as an imprecise science and provides a lot of information as to what might happen. A one track forecast seems helpful but can be very misleading eg. Fay.  Moreover, a 500 mile wide "cone" around the one line track I don't find terribly helpful and somewhat misleading as it expresses a level of accuracy which is not there.


http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/Fay_models.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #35 

Fay's eye land fall will evidently be very near Cape Romano 5.5 miles south of Marco Island.  This is the north everglades and is an uninhabited island reachable only by boat or helicopter.  It is a fishing and camping island.

I believe all of SW Florida dodged a potential bullet both in wind direction and wind speed. For Captivans, as I have said, this I thought would be Captiva's best outcome and probably the best outcome for Florida's inhabited west coast.  We got our wish!  I would be very surprised if Captiva received any incoming.

Big plus, reebop probably got his PH screens cleaned real good..

Good Luck, God Bless and good night.

   captiivated & kenzie

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reebop

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Reply with quote  #36 
Thanks for the updates.
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CaptivaBound

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Reply with quote  #37 
Captivated and Kenzie, thanks for the storm updates.  The sites you attached were very interesting to access.  Spaghetti models are fascinating. 

Anyone know if SSIR evacuated guests?  Any impact on Captiva at all?  I imagine there are some screened porches that need some cleaning if the rain was powerful.

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glenn

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Reply with quote  #38 
My understanding is that a mandatory evacuation was ordered for Captiva Guests, and a voluntary evacuation for island residents.

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Captiva Adventures
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rdesposito

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Reply with quote  #39 

Friends of ours are in our Unit at PBCIII and they did not evacuate.  We spoke to them last night and they were "hunkering down" and staying put.

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #40 
rdesposito:

Did your friends say anything about damage to the Resort, other property, Golf Course, roads flooding etc.  Did they ever lose power? How did they monitor the storms progress? Weather Channel, The Forum? Those inputs would be really nice to know. 
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #41 

Glenn, "Captiva Guests" sounds a whole lot better than the term Sanibel City Council used calling all of us "transients".  In California transients are homeless beach people usually transporting all their worldly possessions in a grocery cart.

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glenn

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Reply with quote  #42 
All Looks Good,

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From Sanibel City Site

As of 7 am the Sanibel Police Department has completed an assessment. At this time Sanibel reports no known power outages, no known flooding, no known road closures due to downed vegetation or standing water.
 
 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From http://www.mycaptiva.info/

TROPICAL STORM FAY


Warnings & 3-Day Cone


Warnings & 5-Day Cone


Strike Prob

Photos Courtesy of Mark & Debbie Wells

Reports From Captiva:

Lt. Joe Poppalardo reports "Nothing of significance to report. Fay was very uneventful for Captiva. No damage of any kind to report at this time or any other significant information."

Fire Chief Jay Halverson reports "The Island is in good shape with no damage to homes, vegetation, or to the beaches at this time. We have a high tide around 3pm so depending on how fast Fay's winds decrease and how fast it moves away from us, we may have some minor beach erosion. Almost all of the heavy rains passed to the East of us, with only light rains on Captiva."

Thanks to both of them and their co-workers for all their hard work!

This will be the last advisory on Fay.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

Number of LCEC residents without power:

  • Marco Island: 1900
  • Immokalee: 1600
  • Everglades City: 770
  • Lehigh Acres: 2000
  • North Fort Myers: 95
  • Cape Coral: 200
  • Pine Island: 150
  • Sanibel: minimal isolated outages 

 


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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #43 
Glenn,

Thanks for the web site, have put it on my desk top.  Aside from the minor power outages I find it all good news.  I've seen higher waves than that on Captiva during a squall.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #44 
As Yogi Bara said, "it's not over till it's over".  The attached NOAA table suggests 2008 is going to be a well above average Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure4.gif
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #45 
Crude oil prices are spiking because of Fay's westward track.  Most troubling for the oil markets is the light blue and yellow spaghetti trend lines.  True only 2 of 7 probable trend lines but if Fay takes the light blue or yellow route over 100 wells will have to be evacuated and shout down.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/Fay_models.html
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