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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #16 
H2Whoa! 
The expected track of Fay is now expected to take an even more northerly path (Florida Panhandle?) and as a result Captiva is almost out of the cone of expectations.!


http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/FAY.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #17 

Captiva has been reduced to a "tropical storm watch" from a "hurricane watch". I think (hope) we just dodged a bullet.   Despite the above the track line has again shifted to the west with a land fall now anticipated in the Tampa Bay area.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #18 

The Barrier Islands have returned to a Hurricane watch and the estimated track of the storm looks like a direct hit on Captiva. The attached chart was updated this morning.  The storm is still moving at 13mph and wind speed has picked up to 60mph.  If the storm continues on its current track land fall is projected at 2:00 PM Tuesday.



http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/FAY.html

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #19 
Captiva Island (outside), Florida
The projected 2PM land fall will unfortunately be at a 2.5 foot high tide.  Tide chart below.

Captiva Island (outside), Floridahttp://www.softseas.net/default.aspx
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #20 

Given the asymmetrical nature of the storm...eye on west edge of storm and most of the storm and rain on the right of the eye, it seems to me our preferred outcome now is to have the eye hit land south of Captiva, the further south the better. 

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reebop

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Reply with quote  #21 
Thanks for the updates C&K. I'm checking in with you rather than elsewhere.
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #22 

Thanks, we will try to keep everyone up to date.  It has been a real learning experience and a bit of a shock to find out how poor and unreliable the NWS forecasts have been.  Guess that is the nature of the beast.  I'm sure that as we get closer to landfall the forecasts will be much improved.

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #23 



Attached is the 12 o'clock EDT chart. not much change from this morning. Below the main chart at the top, check the barometric pressure chart.  The  barometric pressure is plunging, suggesting the storm is strengthening.  Also check wind speed, it is gaining strength.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/FAY.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #24 
You won't believe these pictures and graphics.  Spend some time on it, it is really fascinating.  Use this to confirm the NMS charts.  Some of the pictures of Fay are almost "Real Time" updating every ten minutes.  Try the animation button.



http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #25 

For example, 5 of the 8 spaghetti eye tracking models have the eye to the south of Captiva, my current preference.  The other 3 models are pretty much a direct hit.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #26 
Quick update: still maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour.  Some forecasters concerned that the storm is stalling its forward momentum, now 12mph vs 13mph earlier.  Stalling is not good as it gives the storm more time to build over the warm water.

Land fall if in the Captiva area is expected to be 8:00AM Tue. Surge is now expected in the range of 1-3 feet.  Check the link below for the regular tides.


                                       http://www.softseas.net/default.aspx
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #27 

Sanibel and probably Captiva today announced a mandatory evacuation.  The Ft.Myers news paper update is attached.

 

 

Tropical Storm Fay Update (5 p.m.) - Mandatory evacuation for tourists and visitors announced

In a special emergency session, the Sanibel City Council announced a mandatory evacuation order for tourists and visitors in transient housing (Hotels and Condominiums) on the Island. Sanibel Police are distributing flyers announcing the evacuation.

As of 5 p.m., a Hurricane Warning is still in effect for Sanibel. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 

Tropical Storm Fay is located 128 miles south of Sanibel, moving toward the north/northwest near 12 mph. Forecasters predict a turn toward the north with a slower speed tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected tonight and Tuesday. 

Fay is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the southwest coast of Florida. Tropical Storm Force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. 

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #28 

Oh my God, now poor Glenn is considered a transient!  City Council is getting pretty personal.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #29 

I'm getting my wish, the track at 7PM has moved slightly to the South and the East.  At this point I believe this has to be our preferred path.  

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/FAY.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #30 

Why that is important is that winds on the left side of the eye will approximate 60mph less 12mph forward speed or about 48mph winds.  On the right side of the eye, it is very different.  Winds of about 60mph will be in addition to the storms forward speed or 60+12=72mpr. The difference in being left or right of the eye is roughly 24mph, in this example and that is a big difference when it comes to potential property damages. 

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