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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #1 
The National Weather Service is projecting tropical storm Fay to hit land fall on Tuesday morning.  Currently it looks like a direct hit on Captiva.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143514.shtml?.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #2 

If the storm stays on track according to the NWS and picks up speed Island evacuations could begin tomorrow.  Its going to be interesting to see how the Resort management handles this.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #3 

Not good news!  The below NWS probability table shows a better than 59% probability FAY will be a Hurricane.  Category I (75-95 mph) a 35% probability, and 14% probability for a Category II (96-110 mph) by Tuesday.


 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143514.shtml?.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203433.shtml?table#contents
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #4 
For what its worth Charlie was a Category IV with maximum speed of 150 mph which was also the speed at landfall on August 15, 2004.

Fay has only an 8% probability of a Category III and a lesser 2% probability of a Category IV all according to the NWS currently.  Stay tuned.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #5 

Outlined is the SSIR policy/plans regarding Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.  I requested their thoughts regarding Fay.  They got back to me in one hour and seem to be on top of the problem.

They indicate that they are currently preparing for Fay.

Guests may evacuate now without cost of cancellation fees and some are.  Moreover, if you booked, you may cancel without cost any time a tropical storm or a hurricane is expected.

Some guests are evacuating now but there has not been an official call by the state or county authorities for an evacuation.  That may come Sunday afternoon or evening.  My inference is that the Resort Management will not call for an evacuation until it is demanded by the State/County officials.

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #6 

Good news, the expected land fall according to the NWS is now expected to be about 20-25 miles north of my first posting which appeared to be a bulls-eye on Captiva.  Note, that NWS link is updated regularly.

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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #7 
Good news...bad news.

Good news is that Fay is now expected to hit land fall even further north, about Tampa.  Bad news is the tract is expected to run all along the barrier islands and the Islands it appears will be on the east side of the eye...Not a good spot.

Net-Net that is probably bad news for for Sanibel/Captiva islands.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143514.shtml
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #8 

Better news, tropical storm Fay is now only a 37% possibility of becoming a hurricane down from 59% earlier today.  Maximum wind speed is estimated at 80 mph.

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #9 

The morning input from NWS is not encouraging.  The probability of a Hurricane has moved back up slightly to 40%.  More importantly the Hurricane track has shifted and land fall is again expected to be very close to Captiva. See the NWS chart below.   Currently the storm is moving WNW at 13mph with sustained winds of 50 MPH.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143514.shtml??large#contents

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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #10 

Gov. Charlie Christ of Florida Declared "a state of emergency" and a mandatory evacuation for the Keys.

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reebop

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Reply with quote  #11 
Landfall in FL late Monday, early Tuesday.
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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #12 

Captiva is currently under a "hurricane watch".  Below is what the weather service currently forecasts for Captiva regarding storm surge, winds, rainfall and flooding. 

As a personal note, if I had a friend on the island I would certainly encourage them to evacuate now particularly if you want to fly out.  My guess is that the airport may close down sometime Monday.



... STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM SURGE IS 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY COASTS... AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTY COASTS INCLUDING THE UPPER PORTIONS OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR.

... WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY AFFECT THE WATCH AREA DURING TUESDAY.

... INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK, A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

... TORNADOES...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS FAY MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.


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kenzie

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Reply with quote  #13 
The NOAA has a more descriptive picture of the Hurricane track and it is a direct hit on Captiva. 

I will try to get some tide/time info as as the estimated surge tide could be as high as 7.0 feet.  I find that a little disquieting.


http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/FAY.html
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #14 
Attached, you can obtain the tide charts for Mon Aug 18 and Tue Aug 19.  Fortunately, the Tue morning AM tide, the estimated land fall, is a low tide.


http://www.softseas.net/default.aspx
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captiivated

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Reply with quote  #15 

Very good news, the projected path of Fay now has a projected land fall north of Tampa...if it stays there we may lose some sand but the shelling should be great.  To view the path just click on the sites highlighted earlier, they are updated maybe every 1-2 hours.

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